With No Pena Nieto Miracle, Mexico's Politics at a Crossroads America Economia
go to original December 8, 2013

Where to now, Mr President (America Economia)

MEXICO CITY — In her book Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe, Anne Applebaum argues that when Soviet-imposed communism collapsed in Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, the countries with the most successful transitions were those that had developed “alternative elites,” and had already debated questions about modernizing the economy and expanding civil rights. Where people had forged collaboration and trust-based relations, transition to democracy was smooth and almost natural.

In Poland, the Solidarity trade union led by Lech Walesa had been articulating different forms of government for a decade before transition. In Hungary, economists had been comparing economic development models. And where such debates were absent, communist politicians retained power disguised as democrats. I wondered as I read her book, which of the two models does Mexico resemble?

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)’s return to the presidency after a 13-year absence has provoked tremendous expectations given the “love-hate” relationship many Mexicans have with a party that held almost all powers from 1929 to 2000. Mexicans inevitably have a different question: What do the changes imply for our rights, for the country’s development, our family earnings and security?

If success depends on the development of an alternative elite, how do we compare to the Eastern Bloc countries? Mexico has for decades developed an extraordinary, technical capacity for managing the affairs of government, while civil society has evolved and taken ever-more sophisticated forms, which suggest similarities to the successful states.

But traits like the dysfunctionality of recent policies suggest similarity to the other, less successful group. In contrast with the totalitarian Soviet model, the Mexican political model allowed the (limited) development of opposition parties and, begrudgingly, tolerated their occasional victories.

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