Governments' War on Drugs Tied to Increase in Mexican Homicides Steve Fisher - ABC News
go to original October 11, 2013

Protesters hold a candlelight vigil and a march calling for the end of the drug war in the Harlem neighborhood of the Manhattan borough of New York City. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Many of us are familiar with the announcements from Mexico of yet another cartel leader being captured by the government. The presentation of the event is carefully scripted and often accompanied by a declaration that the country has taken another step towards security and peace.

But a different story is emerging through recent research by Stanford Associate Professor Beatriz Magaloni. She found that drug trade-related homicides increased by nearly 40 percent in affected municipalities after a leader was captured or killed.

It’s a shocking statistic in a time when Mexico is coming to terms with the former administration’s U.S.-backed drug war. Conservative estimates suggest that, during Felipe Calderón’s presidency, at least 70,000 people died from drug-related violence.

In a presentation hosted by the Center for Latin American Studies at UC Berkeley, Magaloni focused primarily on the impact that Calderón’s focus on cartel leaders has had.

She found that after leaders were deposed, destabilized cells dispersed, with lower-level lieutenants both fighting off rival cartels bent on expansion and seeking revenge on regional leaders suspected of government cooperation. “State actions have a paradoxical effect: they weaken cartels and open space for other cartels to come in,” she said. In addition, after a capture, Magaloni noted an increase in extortion and kidnapping of the general population.

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