Breaking Bad: Rest of 2013 Hurricane Season to Be 'Above Normal' Salvatore Cardoni - TakePart
go to original August 14, 2013

Digital Meteorologist Jon Erdman discusses the reasons why NOAA changed the hurricane forecast for the season. (TheWeatherChannel)

Ask a Staten Islander who lost his home in Hurricane Sandy about forecasting an entire hurricane season and he might look at you unblinkingly and say, “It only takes one.”

Which is why the “very active” second half of the 2013 hurricane season predicted by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is so scary.

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, the agency estimate a 70 percent probability for each of the following: 13 to 19 named storms, six to nine hurricanes (with winds exceeding 74 mph), and three to five major hurricanes (with winds exceeding 110 mph) to form before the 2013 season ends on November 30.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, the agency’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

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