Schuyler Null: Can Mexico Harness Its Demographic Dividend? Schuyler Null - Wilson Center
go to original June 20, 2013

#YoSoy132 protesters (flickr/Renato Guerra)

Mexico’s 2012 elections were important for a host of reasons: the PRI party returned to power after 12 years of rule by the more conservative PAN; there was the first female presidential candidate from a major political party; and turn-out was historically high. They also proved that Mexico’s young people are not as apathetic as some may have thought, with the emergence of the #YoSoy132 student movement demanding fair press coverage.

Mexico is a young country but is no longer growing rapidly, having completed the demographic transition – when total fertility rates decline, following a similar trend in infant mortality – decades ago. Total fertility is now 2.2 children per woman, according to the latest UN data, and the median age is 25.9. However, the country still has a formidable “youth bulge” of people ages 15 to 29, the echo of previously high growth rates. If harnessed correctly, via well-paying jobs and ample opportunities for social advancement, this youth bulge can lower the country’s ratio of dependents (those outside the labor force) and producers, creating what demographers call a “demographic dividend” or “demographic bonus” of accelerated economic growth.

However, Pedro Salazar Ugarte on Boston Review writes that Mexico is in danger of missing this opportunity and perhaps worse, creating the seeds of further discontent in a country already reeling with violence. “Mexico is going through crucial and unprecedented times.”

Read the rest at Wilson Center

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