Fewer Mexicans Head North as Ag Economy Changes Mateusz Perkowski - Capital Press
go to original February 19, 2013

Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Todd Staples calls for workforce reform, better enforcement in border debate. (KVUE.com)

Changes in Mexican agriculture are prompting more workers to remain south of the border, driving up competition for labor with U.S. farmers, according to a migration study.

Broader social changes in Mexico, such as a reduced fertility rate, are also shrinking the overall supply of workers available to the agricultural industry, according to a report by the non-profit Migration Policy Institute.

"It's a pretty solid development," said Eleanor Sohnen, a policy analyst for the group. "The huge pool of lower-skill Mexican farm labor is not going to be there forever."

Farming in Mexico is becoming increasingly oriented toward exports, with producers selling off-season fruits and vegetables to major U.S. retailers, the study said.

Due to the volume and quality standards required, these crops are generally grown by larger operations that rely more on hired workers than do traditional small family farms, the report said.

Within Mexico, the popularity of supermarkets - which have similar supply chain needs as U.S. retailers - is also pressing farms to get bigger and more sophisticated.

Improved productivity and demand for labor have driven up wages, so Mexican laborers "may be opting to stay home rather than emigrate to work in agriculture abroad," the study said.

As a result, U.S. farmers are effectively pulling more workers from the farther reaches of southern Mexico, as well as Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, said Sohnen.

"Fewer Mexicans are making that journey," she said, noting that in 2012 the net migration from Mexico was found to be zero.

Beyond the shifting structure of Mexican agriculture, the country is experiencing similar developments as the U.S. did in the mid-20th Century that reduced the share of people employed in farming, Sohnen said.

Mexicans are achieving higher levels of education and earning larger incomes, she said. As the population gets wealthier, this creates new domestic job opportunities in the service sector.

Women are also more likely to join the workforce, which has made birth control and modern family planning more common - resulting in slowing population growth, Sohnen said.

The momentum away from farm work has been so strong that it wasn't hindered by the economic turbulence of recent years, she said. "Despite the recession and high unemployment, it didn't mean they were more likely to take ag jobs."

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