In Mexico, Eyes on 3 US State's Marijuana Measures, Says Security Expert Tracy Wilkinson - Los Angeles Times
go to original November 2, 2012

MEXICO CITY — This may not weigh heavily on the minds of voters in the Northwest, but if Oregon, Washington and Colorado legalize marijuana in next week’s election, the effect on drug traffickers in Mexico could be enormous.

“It could be the biggest structural blow that (Mexican) drug trafficking has experienced in a generation," Alejandro Hope, security expert with the Mexican Competitiveness Institute, said in presenting a report made by this think tank in the Mexican capital. Producing and distributing marijuana inside the U.S. would supply a less expensive and, Hope says, a better-quality drug to the millions of American who smoke it.

Demand for Mexican pot would decline, cutting into cartels’ profits by 22 to 30 percent, the study calculates. The consequences would be most dramatic for the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, which is based in western Mexico and controls most of the marijuana production.

It is estimated that around one-third of Mexican drug gangs’ income is from marijuana, surpassed only and narrowly by cocaine.

The three states have legalization initiatives on their ballots. Hope cited polls that showed likely approval for the measures in Washington and Colorado and defeat in Oregon.

Taking into account taxes, markups, transportation costs and other factors, American-produced marijuana would retail at a little more than half the cost of illegally shipped Mexican pot, Hope’s study indicated.

However, he acknowledged that legalization in one or more U.S. states would create an illicit contraband of the drug to other states — precisely one of the main arguments used by opponents of the measures.

One unpredictable consequence is how the cartels would react. Would the thousands of people employed in marijuana production turn to other illegal — and possibly more violent — activities, like kidnapping and extortion?

Also, the study does not consider what would happen in the likely event that the U.S. federal government acts to impede or challenge legalization measures approved by state voters.

But any legalization in the U.S. is an interesting prospect in Mexico, because it would probably cut illegal production — and probably change the debate over drug use worldwide.

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