Hurricane Paul Set to Graze Baja California AccuWeather
go to original October 14, 2012

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook - This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)

Reuters Update - Hurricane Paul picked up speed as it churned toward a sparsely populated area of Mexico's Baja peninsula, where it was expected to make landfall by Tuesday afternoon, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Paul, a Category 2 hurricane, was about 130 miles south of Cabo San Lazaro and was moving north-northeast at 21 miles per hour (33 km per hour) with maximum wind speeds of 110 miles per hour (175 km per hour), the center said on Tuesday.

"Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall," the center said, warning the storm would cause dangerous coastal waves and possible of flash floods.

The Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning from Santa Fe northward to Punta Abreojos on the country's western Baja peninsula, the center said. The storm is not expected to hit the tourist resorts of Los Cabos.

Tropical Storm Paul has formed out of a mass of moisture in the eastern Pacific and is set to bring significant impacts to Baja California.

Currently a tropical storm, Paul is moving slowly west across the western Pacific, however by the end of the day on Sunday, the storms should take a significant turn to the north, and eventually northeast.

While most current model forecasts keep the center of the storm from making landfall, the storm will still manage to bring significant impacts as it grazes the coastline.

As the the storm moves north, significant rainfall will occur across the Baja Peninsula as early as Tuesday. Flash flooding will be a major concern to the area due to the amount of rainfall possible.

As the storm moves north it will initially begin to strengthen, as low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures help the system develop. Paul has a moderate chance of reaching hurricane strength over the next couple of days.

However farther north, shear will increase while ocean temperatures will rapidly decrease, creating an unfavorable situation for the system.

As the storm grazes Baja California, it will begin to turn to the northwest and eventually dissipate over the cold waters of the region.

While bringing major impacts to the Baja Peninsula and northwestern Mexico, the moisture from Paul is not expected to bring major impacts to the southwestern U.S. There is however the chance that the system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the deserts of southern Arizona and Southern California mid to lake week.

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