Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's Exit Could Help Mexican Leftist Party Juan Montes - WSJ.com
go to original September 15, 2012

Mr. Lopez Obrador, who declared fraud and protested his loss in the past two presidential elections, announced he will create a new party called the Movement for National Regeneration. (Christian Palma/AP)

MEXICO CITY - This week's split between Mexico's largest leftist party and its standard-bearer for the past two presidential elections is a mixed blessing for the party: It loses its most popular politician but gains a chance to become a moderate party that could broaden its appeal and possibly win power.

The charismatic nationalist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the biggest political figure on Mexico's left for the past decade, said Sunday he would quit the Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, and start his own party.

A divided left could help the incoming government of president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto, of Mexico's former ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. The left is seen as the main opposition force in coming years, after the ruling conservative National Action Party, or PAN, collapsed in this year elections and came in a distant third.

"The PRI is the biggest winner of the situation," said political analyst Jose Antonio Crespo. "In the short-term, it will be easy for the PRI to pass bills in Congress. In the long run, it will be impossible for the left to win the presidency with two different candidates."

The decision came after growing disagreements between both sides over how to respond to the party's loss in the July presidential election.

While the PRD has recognized the victory of Mr. Peña Nieto, Mr. Lopez Obrador refuses to do so, accusing the PRI candidate of vote-buying and breaking campaign spending limits, allegations the PRI denies.

For Mr. López Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor, it is the second consecutive election in which he has refused to accept defeat, having narrowly lost in 2006 and led months of street protests that culminated in him declaring himself the "legitimate" president, complete with a mock swearing-in ceremony.

That move by the silver haired 58-year-old scared away many in Mexico's middle class, and many in the PRD worried the leader's intransigence would cost them again this time around.

In an interview this week, PRD President Jesús Zambrano said the break will lead to a reshaping of the party to consolidate it as a moderate, tolerant left-wing alternative, looking to spin a broader coalition of voters beyond the poor to the middle-classes and business sector.

"After López Obrador's decision, we're not going to remain ambiguous or undefined," said Mr. Zambrano. "And if that leads to confront him in some issues, we'll do without hesitation."

Mr. Zambrano said the model would be what he called the Latin American social democratic party "par excellence," Brazil's Workers Party founded by former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He also cited as a reference the sort of deep changes the Spanish Labor Party had to go through, renouncing Marxist principles to become a governing party under the leadership of Felipe González in the 1980s.

In contrast with prominent PRD figures, Mr. López Obrador says Mexico is governed by an oligarchy of businessmen and corrupt politicians. He talks about his movement as a make-or-break milestone for the country, as it was the Mexican Revolution earlier last century.

"He is not Hugo Chávez, but he is the kind of strong leftist personality typical of Latin America recent history," said Manuel Camacho Solis, a top PRD official.

Mr. López Obrador couldn't be reached for comment for this article.

The relationship between the two sides began to slip after the 2006 election. Mr. López Obrador led the PRD to its highest vote total, but came up short to President Felipe Calderón by less than 250,000 votes. Mr. López Obrador claimed fraud and led protests that virtually paralyzed Mexico City, a key middle-class stronghold for Mexican left.

This time around, Mr. López Obrador claimed fraud again, even though he lost by more than 3 million votes. But after some prominent PRD members, including state governors and congressional leaders, expressed their willingness to work with the new administration, Mr. López Obrador decided it was time for a break. On Sunday, he announced plans to start a new political party, called National Regeneration Movement, or Morena, in Spanish - a word that also means dark-skinned.

Mr. Zambrano said in the interview the PRD is open to form a united leftist front in the future with Mr. López Obrador's party. But despite some occasional alliances that may be reached at state and municipal levels, it seems unlikely both sides could agree to a joint presidential candidate in six years' time. Mr. Zambrano said any joint presidential candidate should come from internal primaries.

"The PRD has a big challenge ahead, but also a unique opportunity if it finds a strong leader beyond the bureaucratic apparatus," said Jesús Silva Herzog, a political columnist with leading Mexican newspaper Reforma.

Marcelo Ebrard, current Mexico City's mayor and very popular among middle-class, is seen by many as the natural leader of the new PRD. Another possible contender could be Mexico City's mayor-elect Miguel Ángel Mancera, who will be governing the capital next six years after a landslide victory last July.

Even without Mr. López Obrador, the party still has several internal groups - so called "tribes - that could turn the party ungovernable and abort hopes of change. Also, the electoral record of the PRD without Mr. Lopez Obrador on the ballot has been weak.

"The one that has the vote of the Mexican left is Lopez Obrador. It is a strategic mistake to try to compete with him," said Martí Batres, a PRD representative at the lower house of congress.

Write to Juan Montes at juan.montes@dowjones.com

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