Could (Should) US Eliminate Mexico's El Chapo? W. Alejandro Sanchez - VOXXI
go to original August 22, 2012

In this June 10, 1993 file photo, Joaquin Guzman Loera, alias “El Chapo Guzman” is shown to the press after his arrest at the high security prison of Almoloya de Juarez, on the outskirts of Mexico City. (AP/Damian Dovarganes)

According to the Mexican daily Proceso, the U.S. government aims to eliminate the renowned leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. Per the report, ”the Pentagon elaborated the plan several months ago but it’s now at a standstill because it would only be carried out by American troops,” a displeasing prospect for the Mexican military. According to the Mexican media, outgoing president, Felipe Calderon, may have already shown support for this plan.

While the sources of this report remain unclear, the idea of eliminating El Chapo is, unsurprisingly, already generating analyses and discussions as exemplified by a recent piece on Wired.com. The Wired article discusses the likelihood of the operation taking place as well as the pros and cons. In addition there are comparisons between a theoretical operation against El Chapo and the operation that eliminated Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

The goal of this commentary is not to assess the validity of the claims by Proceso, but rather to discuss the provocative idea of whether or not only El Chapo can be captured or eliminated in an Osama bin Laden-style operation by the U.S. In addition, the ultimate question that needs to be asked remains: Has El Chapo become too big to be captured alive?

The Obvious Concern

An obvious initial concern relates to U.S. collaboration with the Mexican government should they find El Chapo and either (A) attempt to capture him or (B) eliminate him. Of course, a realistic possibility is that El Chapo could somehow be informed about the operation via his contacts in the government and escape.

There is some logic to this sentiment as there are several proven instances of corruption and incompetence in the Mexican government and military. In May 2012, four Mexican army generals were detained for ties with drug cartels. According to a report by the New York Times “the accusations against the third general […] include that he ignored a tip by American drug agents about an imminent airplane delivery of a drug cartel’s cocaine in 2007.”

To compare the situation to the Bin Laden Operation, when President Barack Obama received enough credible intelligence information to send Seal Team Six (the military unit that was deployed to eliminate bin Laden), he did so. However he did not inform the Pakistani government of his decision, concerned that bin Laden would be tipped off by friendly Pakistani officials, like members of the ISI.

Should the U.S. military intervene into Mexican territory without informing Mexico D.F. about such an operation, this would be a grave insult that could put into jeopardy binational relations.

Read more at VOXXI

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