Predictions for Latin America Almost Never Come True. Here's Some for 2017 Rico - Q Costa Rica
go to original December 31, 2016

Predicting the future in Latin America is a bit like trying to hit a knuckleball. It involves more luck than skill. And even if you choke up on the bat, it’s still easy to overswing and look foolish.

But here’s the thing. Year-end tradition demands that journalists write either an old year-in-review article or a new year-in-preview article. And there’s nothing more exhausting than a review of 2016. You either paid attention to the news and you know this stuff already, or you didn’t and you don’t. Either way, 2017 is minutes away, so let’s talk about what happens next.

Let’s start with Central America, because someone has to.

Mexico dominated Donald Trump’s immigration fearmongering during the campaign, but the northern triangle of Central America stands to suffer the most if this guy actually follows through on his promises of mass deportation.

If Trump really plans to “immediately deport” upwards of 3 million undocumented immigrants, he could only get those numbers by targeting the lowest-hanging fruit: Central Americans. That type of mass removal would have devastating consequences on the small and vulnerable countries like El Salvador, which has the size and population of Massachusetts and a crack-like dependence on U.S. remittances.

If Trump were to deport 30,000 Mexicans his first week in office, it would make headlines but probably wouldn’t disrupt a country the size of Mexico. But if Trump were to deport 30,000 Salvadorans in his first week in office, the consequences would be devastating - not only on El Salvador but the entire region.

Mass-deportation would fuel the gang war in the most violent country in the hemisphere, push El Salvador towards economic and social collapse, and generate a regional refugee crisis that would further destabilize the entire region.

“If Trump deports 10,000 Salvadorans when he takes office, the next week there will be 20,000 more Salvadorans emigrating to the United States,” former FMLN guerrilla leader Guadalupe Martinez told me.

Needless to say, El Salvador could end up being one of the biggest stories in Latin America next year - and that’s one prediction I hope I’m 100% wrong about.

Read the rest at Q Costa Rica

Photo: (AFP/Getty Images)

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