The Mexican Peso Decides It: Hillary Clinton Won the First Presidential Debate Jessica Sier - Financial Review
go to original September 27, 2016

The debate's most important moment (TP Clips)

The yen slid from a one-month high and the Mexican peso soared during the first presidential debate as currency traders began to favor the likelihood of a Hillary Clinton victory.

The Mexican peso/US dollar currency cross is possibly the most sensitive markets gauge of how likely a Donald Trump victory is, as traders worry about whether a Trump President would dismantle trade relations with its southern neighbor.

The US dollar slid nearly 2 per cent to 19.51 pesos as presidential hopefuls Clinton and Trump clashed over the economy, cyber security, trade and race in New York.

"This is the FX market's current weapon of choice, such is the level of concern that were Trump to win, he would unleash a trade war with Mexico," says NAB global co-head of currency strategy Ray Attrill.

"The stronger Hillary is, and the stronger the chance of her victory, the better for the peso."

It's a sharp turnaround as investors have punished the peso in recent weeks. The greenback had climbed nearly 10 per cent since early September as polls started tightening, extending a rout for the Mexican currency which has lost nearly a third of its value over the past two years. Net short positions on the peso jumped 37 per cent in the week ending September 20 and were at the highest in more than 20 years of data.

"On balance, the markets perceive that the first debate went to Mrs Clinton, hence USD under a bit of pressure," said Annette Beacher chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities. "Risk assets are a little firmer after a soft overnight session."

Read the rest at Financial Review

Related: In the Debate Donald Trump Was Simply Wrong About VAT and Mexico (Forbes)

Related: Trump Hammers America's 'Worst Trade Deal' (CNNMoney)

Related: Trump Migrant Rhetoric Gives Surprise Boost to Mexico's Neighboring Guatemala (Bloomberg)

Related: Trump Was Unprepared and Out of His Depth on Debate Stage (The Fiscal Times)

Related: People Around the World React to First Trump-Clinton Debate (Associated Press)

Related: Fact-Checking the First Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton Debate (Bloomberg)

Related: Mexico Seen Hiking Rates After Peso Sinks on U.S. Election Fears (Reuters)

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