Was the Zika Outbreak a Product of Climate Change? Brian Dunleavy - Contagion Live
go to original September 17, 2016

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic and seasonal distributions of existing vectors and vector-borne diseases. (ClimateState)

Zika’s history as a “tropical” disease plays into the theory that global warming has played a role in the presence of virus-carrying Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus mosquitos, and thus the disease itself, in heretofore “temperate” climates such as the southeastern United States.

However, there’s some question as to whether or not that theory holds water, at least when existing evidence is taken into account.

In a study published on August 26 by the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, researchers in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at the University of California, Berkeley have concluded that Zika-carrying mosquitos will not be “as serious a problem in temperate climates as in the tropics,” according to study lead author Colin Carlson, a PhD candidate and researcher at the school. The study findings are based on bioclimatic models developed by the research team and designed to establish the “outer bound on where the virus is likely to persist,” using a “comprehensive geospatial dataset of Zika occurrences” in the virus’ “native range,” since it was first identified in 1947.

“It’s difficult to say whether climate change has been responsible [for any Zika outbreaks in temperate climates to date], but our models don’t provide strong evidence that it has,” Carlson told Contagion. “We know that climate change is helping mosquitoes spread to new places, and our models suggest most of those expansions won’t be accompanied by Zika because Zika already doesn’t go everywhere mosquitoes can.”

Despite some “doomsday” projections about the future of Zika in the mainstream press, the analysis by Carlson et al suggests that the outbreaks of Zika in Mexico and North America - particularly in Florida - may be an anomaly, given that these regions are “outside the native ecological niche of the disease.” They write that the cases identified to date “may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino, or similar climatic events,” but that there is no evidence suggesting that these outbreaks may become regular occurrences in the future.

Read the rest at Contagion Live

Related: Should You Cancel Your Winter Travel Plans Because of Zika? (Romper)

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