Homicides in Mexico: What Goes Up Does Not Necessarily Come Down Stephanie Leutert - Lawfare
go to original August 5, 2016

For the first half of 2016, Mexico’s murder rate rose over 15 percent compared to last year. This has prompted concern that the country’s recent gains in quelling the drug war might be slowing down. (CCTV America)

A few years ago, it seemed that Mexico’s security challenges were everywhere. They were featured on CNN, in Time Magazine, and in the agendas of most bilateral meetings.

But over the past few years, the spotlight on Mexico’s security crisis has dimmed.

There are several possible reasons. It could be that U.S. and Mexican news cycles have diversified their coverage, focusing on other issues, like economic reform and corruption. It could be that journalists or think tankers burnt out on the issue. Or it could be that domestic sensitivities such as immigration or border security have successfully sucked the air out of the room. It could be a combination of all three.

But one thing’s for sure: it’s not because the nationwide murder rate in Mexico is looking significantly better.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

This past May was Mexico’s most violent month since September 2012, clocking in with an astonishing 1,895 homicides (using the government’s victim count). This is about the same number of murders as when President Enrique Peña Nieto took office in December 2012, although still short of the country’s bloodiest months under former President Felipe Calderón.

Yet what is surprising about the recent uptick in violence is that is not localized to one city or state. In the first six months of 2016, twenty-one Mexican states (out of a total of thirty-three) recorded more murders than in the year before.

The following map from the Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de la Seguridad Pública provides a visual depiction of murder upticks color-coded by intensity (the darker the state, the greater the increase):



To help explain this year’s violence, I spoke with security analyst Alejandro Hope, who outlined five hypotheses to explain the recent uptick.

Check it out at Lawfare

Related: Municipal Murders Highlight Local Corruption in Mexico (Insight Crime)

We invite you to add your charity or supporting organizations' news stories and coming events to PVAngels so we can share them with the world. Do it now!