Forecaster Claims Mexico is Heading for Recession Steve Johnson - FT.com
go to original May 18, 2016

Mexico's Tequila Crisis 1994 (Gaksu Learning)

Mexico is about to plunge into recession for the first time since 2009, an economic forecasting agency has claimed.

The dire prediction runs counter to the prevailing market view. Although Mexican economic growth is slowing, most still expect to see expansion of at least 2 per cent this year.

A panel of 22 banks and other organisations polled in April by data analysts Consensus Economics found a median gross domestic product growth forecast of 2.4 per cent for 2016, with the lowest estimate 1.8 per cent.

In March the Bank of Mexico cut its growth forecast amid a “complex” economic outlook, but it still foresaw growth of between 2 and 3 per cent this year while the IMF also pencilled in 2.4 per cent growth in its April global economic outlook.

The forecast of recession comes from World Economics, which produces a family of sales managers’ indices or SMIs, based on replies from a panel of salespeople across the services and manufacturing sectors, which it claims is the most forward-looking data series available.

Read the rest at FT.com

Related: Top Forecaster Says Mexico May Raise Rate If Peso Hits 18.80 (Bloomberg)

Related: Mexico Peso Hits 3-Month Low, Market Expects More Intervention (Reuters)

Related: Mexico Cenbanker Warns Global Events Could Spur Next Hike (Reuters)

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