If Polls Don't Lie, Pena Nieto Will Win The News
go to original June 27, 2012

Supporters of Enrique Pena Nieto (L), presidential candidate of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), block demonstrators of the anti-PRI opposition movement "Yosoy132" ("I am 132") outside a rally in Morelia, in the Mexican state of Michoacan June 26, 2012. (Reuters/Leo Gonzalez)

MEXICO CITY – At the end of the campaign season, Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto is holding on to his front-runner status in polls, with a 20-point lead over leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

According to the most recent Mitofsky poll, published Tuesday, support for Peña Nieto is at 45 percent and Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) presidential candidate López Obrador has 29 percent – a 16-point advantage for the PRI candidate.

National Action Party (PAN) presidential candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota garnered 24 percent, while New Alliance (Panal) presidential candidate got 2 percent.

Polling house Covarrubias & Associates, which covered the 2006 presidential election, now says that Peña Nieto’s support is at 38 percent; López Obrador is in second place, with 28 percent.

THROWING A TAUNTRUM, AGAIN

Progressive Movement presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador responded by saying that the surveys are biased against him, and said that they have been “bought off” and use poor statistical methodology.

López Obrador said, “I’m not saying that they have been bought off in the traditional sense, but I believe that Covarrubias’ surveys have serious errors that are not accidental.”

Surveys from other leading polling houses have indicted that Peña Nieto’s message is resonating nationally. In nearly all polls, he’s had a solid double-digit lead for months.

In a new survey published by Con Estadística on Thursday, the “Committed to Mexico” candidate had a 17-point lead over López Obrador, at 44 percent. Another survey by Parametría released on Monday said that Enrique Peña Nieto remained the frontrunner with a 15.2-point lead over López Obrador.

The Mitofsky poll also noted that the PRI’s coalition with the Green Party is helping the parties chance of winning a majority in Congress. Consulta Mitofsky suggested that the PRI’s Green Party coalition could win between 274 and 304 seats in the 500-member lower house of Congress, and between 66 and 73 seats in the 128-member Senate.

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