Will Recreational Marijuana Sales in Colorado Hurt Mexican Cartels? Nathan Jones - Baker Institute
go to original January 7, 2014

Last week Colorado became the first state in the union to allow retail recreational marijuana sales. The Internet is awash with stories documenting a moment that many may look back on as a watershed. I seek here to address what many have pondered: What impact, if any, will Colorado’s legalization have on organized crime in Mexico? Mexico has suffered from more than 100,000 drug related deaths since 2006. While the pace of homicides appears to be slowing, according to official government statistics, kidnappings and cases of extortion are rising. Could legalization help to reduce drug-related violence in Mexico? Or have the cartels diversified too far into other drugs and criminal activities for it to matter?

I would argue that in the short term, Colorado’s legalization will probably have a negligible impact on drug-related violence in Mexico, given the size of the market and Colorado’s carefully written marijuana legislation and regulations. But it represents a model for other states that could have a massive impact on cartel profits and thereby reduce drug violence in Mexico. The Colorado and Washington state legalization efforts represent carefully tailored first steps toward the broader legalization of marijuana that could significantly impact drug-related violence in Mexico.

Markets are complex. We have to differentiate between short, medium and long-term effects. Further we have to think about two important factors for Mexico: the profits of cartels and the strength of state institutions. Many speciously bifurcate these issues. I argue that they cannot be separated.

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