It May be Premature to Write Off the Political Left in Latin America Walter T. Molano - Latinvex
go to original April 27, 2016

Former Mexico City Mayor and staunch leftist politician, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is leading the pack for the 2018 presidential elections in Mexico. (Morena)

Many pundits are proclaiming the death of the political left across Latin America. The presidential election of Mauricio Macri, the right-wing Mayor of Buenos Aires, and the ongoing impeachment proceedings against Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff have been used by the talking heads as evidence that the left is in demise.

However, it may be premature to write off the political left. Most signs show that it is alive and lurking just below the surface.

...In Mexico, former Mexico City Mayor and staunch leftist politician, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is leading the pack for the 2018 presidential elections. While Mexico has traditionally been led by center-right and right-wing governments, an AMLO presidency would take the country in a completely new direction.

In a region with such rampant poverty, socialist values will always have a great deal of appeal. Even in Argentina and Brazil, the political left could easily stage a comeback.

...In reality, the political pendulum never swung as far to the left as many pundits argued, nor did it swing as far to the right as many hoped. Given that Latin American governments tend to generate a great deal of the revenues from commodity royalties, the surge in raw material prices created an environment that was conducive to the left’s redistributive policies. However, the collapse in commodity prices led to a wave of public disillusion as the redistributive programs thinned out, leaving heaps of waste, abuse and corruption in plain view.

Their subsequent fall from grace allowed the political right to move into place. However, this should not be construed as a shift in ideology. It is more of a natural response to changes in the international economic environment.

Read the rest at Latinvex

Walter Molano is head of research at BCP Securities and the author of In the Land of Silver: 200 Years of Argentine Political-Economic Development

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